Alliance Advisory Group Blog

June 30, 2010

Plans to Assist the Small Business Lending Market

Filed under: Strategic Advisory — Tags: , , , — admin @ 1:25 pm

Small business lending remains down following two years of attempts by Washington to revive it. The latest remedy to surface is President Barack Obama’s $30 billion plan to offer capital to small banks with incentives to loan it to small companies. That plan passed the U.S. House of Representatives on June 17, but it’s not clear if it will manage better than previous efforts to increase the supply of credit by pumping money into banks.

Beneath the problem, say some economists, policymakers, and observers, is a lack of information: We don’t have the data that’s needed to understand why small business lending is down—and what a proper fix might look like.

The data shortfall makes it hard to determine if the decline in small business lending has been driven by the banks’ unwillingness to lend—or by the companies’ disinterest in borrowing or lack of creditworthy status.

Small business portfolios at the largest bailed-out banks—those with over $100 billion in assets—shrank by 9 percent from June 2008 to June 2009, compared to a drop of 4 percent in their overall lending, according to a May report from the Congressional Oversight Panel.

TARP’s record prompts questions as to whether the $30 billion Small Business Lending Fund will work. The plan would offer community banks government loans that become cheaper if they increase lending to small businesses.

A pair of surveys offers clues about how supply and demand may have driven the drop in lending. The Federal Reserve’s quarterly Survey of Senior Loan Officers indicates that banks tightened standards for small companies during each quarter from the start of 2007 to 2010. Demand for credit from small businesses dropped in the same period. The National Federation of Independent Business’ monthly member survey shows that while credit has tightened, few respondents—a mere 8 percent in May—say their credit needs are unmet. Most rank such problems as poor sales well ahead of difficulty borrowing.

Scattered efforts are underway to produce better data. Regulators just started making banks report small business lending each quarter, rather than just once a year. The Treasury is considering using data from credit bureaus to get a better picture of small business lending conditions.

April 6, 2010

Planning for Growth in the New Normal: Alliance Advisory Group Sees Opportunity in “Lessons Learned” from Recession

Filed under: Strategic Advisory — Tags: , , , — admin @ 2:27 pm

This February, Forbes Insights and CIT Group Inc. released an eye-opening report: “U.S. Small Business Outlook 2010: Lessons Learned—A Case for Greater Optimism.” The authors interviewed more than 200 business owners and key executives in $1-15 million companies, creating a snapshot of where we are now, in the “new normal.” The study’s real value is in the implications the data holds for businesses of any kind as we move cautiously into the recovery.

Nearly all of us faced challenges during the downturn—some more dramatic than others. The question is: how will business owners apply the lessons we’ve learned to make the most of their opportunities, internal and external?

Here are the four key lessons from Alliance Advisory’s perspective:

Lesson 1: Have a plan

In the last 18 months, many companies hit a wall, or worse yet, broke through that wall only to fall off the top-line revenue cliff.

The recession has shown us that small and mid-market businesses did not have the control necessary to maintain or stop the decline, and took drastic action to limit losses. In large part, these actions were reactive rather than planned.

The downturn—and its eventual impact on operations—was not something many smaller companies had prepared for. From mid-2008 and back, we were fat, dumb and happy. Times were good. Money was flowing freely and being spent. A certain degree of complacency worked its way into the system. The majority of companies, as indicated by the survey, did not have a plan of action to put in place if tough times hit, so they made changes on the fly, scrambling to redefine themselves without a model.

Only 64 percent of the companies surveyed intend to aggressively seek growth in 2010. What about the other 36 percent? They are not done reacting to the downturn. The unspoken fact is, they are worried about survival, not growth.

Lesson 2: Plan for profitability within the “new normal”

Having survived the recession is an accomplishment in itself. Just being in existence puts you in a position to benefit where others have failed. The exact definition of the “new normal” is in flux, but we can say unequivocally that the mentality of “if it isn’t broken, why fix it?” proved suicidal. Assume that your business model is broken somewhere and you have just not noticed yet.

Smart companies thrive by constantly reinventing themselves. Does that mean radical change? No. It means evolutionary awareness: constantly analyzing what they do, and how, where, and for whom they do it—adapting to the changing competitive landscape.

If your company has survived, you might be tempted to let down your guard. Don’t! You may have dodged a bullet, but the next shot is unpredictable. Protect yourself by truly understanding your operating expenses. Start by taking the top ten expenses by percentage of total, and drill down into them, identifying opportunities and risk. For service businesses, the biggest expense will be human resources. Do you have the right people, doing the right things, and are the roles and expectations clearly spelled out and articulated?

Revenue growth is an excellent goal, but in the new normal, focus on profitability first. Our clients have seen up to triple-digit increases in profitability from single-digit increases in revenue, just by making their operational mechanisms more efficient.

Warren Buffett remarked that when the tide goes out, you learn who’s been swimming naked. Plan now for low tide.

Lesson 3: Plan for complementary revenue streams

For companies targeting growth in 2010, much of the past two years was spent looking inward, rationalizing the business model based on the new revenue reality. Once you’ve planned for profitability in the face of 20, 30, even 50 percent revenue declines, it’s time to expand market planning and evaluate new revenue opportunities.

Your company has a skill set and capabilities in a particular area. Going forward, you must find ways to exploit these to get a bigger slice of the pie. I advise clients to identify what they do well, boiling it down to their core competencies, and leverage these to take advantage of other opportunities in the marketplace.

When you’ve defined new offerings to take to the marketplace, start with your existing clients. With good will already established, your chances of selling something new or additional will be much greater than recruiting a new customer.

The greatest threat to finding new revenue opportunities is tradition (we do business this way because we’ve always done business this way). A resistance to change equates to a failure to take risks.

Lesson 4: Build accountability into your plan

Planning is not a once-and-done exercise. It is a process. When you’ve set a plan for a period of time—say, your fiscal year—you need to revisit it regularly. I recommend evaluating results against your plan at least monthly. Develop a standard process for measuring performance against the plan, and evaluate progress on your key objectives at least monthly. Once a quarter, evaluate the bigger picture. How has the landscape changed? What new needs or threats have appeared and how will you maneuver around them?

Entrepreneurs create businesses around a passion or a particular proficiency, but the disciplined management and execution of strategic, operational and financial plans tend to be elusive.

If that is the case in your organization, building accountability into your planning process can mean the difference between growth and mere survival.

March 27, 2010

Corporate Balance Sheets Show Surprising Strength

Filed under: Strategic Advisory — Tags: , , , — admin @ 12:53 pm

A recent Business Week article, http://bit.ly/duusrO, discusses how large cap companies have restructured their balances sheets in light of the economic slowdown, namely deleveraging.

Whether this was voluntary or forced upon them it was obviously the right thing to do in light of falling revenues and squeezed margins.

We have been leading many of our clients through the same sort of exercise but in a much more strategic and focused fashion.

Engaging in a process to actually measure a firm’s financial health we help them understand where they are, where they should or need to be and, more importantly, the specific steps they need to take to get there.

The raw numbers on your balance sheet, income statement and cash flow statement are just that. They only have value when tracked and measured against some standard of performance (either internally oriented or externally generated). The secret to effective financial management lies in knowing which ratios to track and what they tell you about the state of your business.

Unlike the profit and loss (income) statement, which is a historical recording that never changes, the balance sheet is a living, breathing document that changes on a daily basis. Three important balance sheet ratios to track are:

* Current ratio (Current assets/current liabilities)
* Quick ratio ([Cash + receivables]/current liabilities)
* Debt-to-equity ratio (Net worth/total liabilities)

The P&L statement focuses on revenues, expenses and net income (or loss) over a defined period of time. It measures the company’s ability to turn sales/revenues into profits, a key ingredient for long-term success. Key P&L ratio’s to track would include:

* Gross income (Revenues – cost of goods sold)
* Gross margin (Net sales – cost of goods sold)
* Net operating profit (Gross margin – SG&A expenses)
* Net profit (Net operating profit + income) – (other expenses + taxes)

Gross margin the most important ratio on the P&L. If you lose the gross margin battle you can do a lot of other things right and still go out of business.

Key operating ratios combine information from the balance sheet and income statement to provide a more sophisticated look at what is happening with the business. These include:

* Gross profit ratio (Gross profit/sales)
* Pretax profit ratio (Pretax profit/sales)
* Sales-to-assets ratio (Total assets/sales)
* Return on assets ratio (Pretax profits/total assets)
* Return on equity ratio (Pretax profit/equity)
* Inventory turnover ratio (Cost of goods sold/inventory)
* Days in inventory ratio (Inventory turnover/365 days)
* Accounts receivable turnover ratio (Sales/accounts receivable)
* Collection period ratio (Accounts receivable turnover/365 days)
* Accounts payable turnover ratio (Cost of goods sold/accounts payable)
* Payable period ratio (Accounts payable turnover/365 days)

You should track and measure your performance ratio’s at least monthly and compare them to internally generated standards of performance (i.e. budget) or against an external source of data (i.e. peer comparisons for your industry)

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