Small business lending remains down following two years of attempts by Washington to revive it. The latest remedy to surface is President Barack Obama’s $30 billion plan to offer capital to small banks with incentives to loan it to small companies. That plan passed the U.S. House of Representatives on June 17, but it’s not clear if it will manage better than previous efforts to increase the supply of credit by pumping money into banks.
Beneath the problem, say some economists, policymakers, and observers, is a lack of information: We don’t have the data that’s needed to understand why small business lending is down—and what a proper fix might look like.
The data shortfall makes it hard to determine if the decline in small business lending has been driven by the banks’ unwillingness to lend—or by the companies’ disinterest in borrowing or lack of creditworthy status.
Small business portfolios at the largest bailed-out banks—those with over $100 billion in assets—shrank by 9 percent from June 2008 to June 2009, compared to a drop of 4 percent in their overall lending, according to a May report from the Congressional Oversight Panel.
TARP’s record prompts questions as to whether the $30 billion Small Business Lending Fund will work. The plan would offer community banks government loans that become cheaper if they increase lending to small businesses.
A pair of surveys offers clues about how supply and demand may have driven the drop in lending. The Federal Reserve’s quarterly Survey of Senior Loan Officers indicates that banks tightened standards for small companies during each quarter from the start of 2007 to 2010. Demand for credit from small businesses dropped in the same period. The National Federation of Independent Business’ monthly member survey shows that while credit has tightened, few respondents—a mere 8 percent in May—say their credit needs are unmet. Most rank such problems as poor sales well ahead of difficulty borrowing.
Scattered efforts are underway to produce better data. Regulators just started making banks report small business lending each quarter, rather than just once a year. The Treasury is considering using data from credit bureaus to get a better picture of small business lending conditions.


